Tuesday, 13 January 2004

Lost opportunity. Last month I wrote that President Bush had a window of opportunity to capitalize on Saddam's capture, and announce changes to his Iraq policy from a position of strength: Like Lincoln after Antietam, Bush had a rare chance to issue proclamations that at other times might have been dismissed as desperation.

But where Lincoln took advantage of the opening provided by Antietam, Bush has allowed the leverage he could have gained from Saddam's capture to slowly ebb away without any action on his part. Having Saddam behind bars boosted initiatives that Bush had already begun, such as James Baker's arm-twisting junket to convince foreign leaders to forgive Iraqi debts—and, of course, it helped our troops' ongoing efforts to establish the rule of law in Iraq. But Bush didn't capitalize on the moment of Saddam's arrest to announce any new policies or improve existing ones.

Bush could have presented a timetable for Iraq's first democratic elections, a plan to reconstitute the Iraqi army, or even recycled his ill-timed speech from November announcing a shift in U.S. policy and our newfound desire to promote democracy in the Mideast. (Imagine how much more effective that speech would have been, had it come on the heels of Saddam's incarceration!) In mid-December Bush could have enacted these policies and thrown a combination punch at his political foes; instead he landed a glancing blow, one that Dean and company will shake off before November. In another month Saddam's capture will be old news (if it isn't already), and Bush may be defensively explaining how our armies got into the briar patch—or why he diverted our troops from more pressing concerns, such as the continuing pursuit of Osama.

In any case, changes to Iraq policy will now (once again) be spun as evidence that Karl Rove is desperately trying to shore up Bush's polling numbers in time for the elections. The window has closed, and Bush missed the opportunity.

- Posted by Scott Forbes at 7:15 am. comments.