Wednesday, 21 April 2004

Bushes, Saudis, oil prices, quid pro quo…

Captain Renault: I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!

[A croupier hands Renault a pile of money]

Croupier: Your winnings, sir.

Captain Renault: [sotto voce] Oh, thank you very much. [aloud] Everybody out at once!

I know we're supposed to pretend that foreigners have no interest in American Presidential elections, and no business in trying to influence the outcome… but who are we kidding? America's choice of leader affects every country from Australia to Zimbabwe; Tom Friedman was right when he said that, for many in the world, the actions of America's government have more impact on their lives than their own government. Of course they care deeply about our elections. You would too.

So I can't say I'm shocked that the Saudis would manipulate oil prices in an effort to tip the election Dubya's way, or that Muqtaba al-Sadr has one eye on the Gallup polls as he incites his followers in Iraq. I suspect that every foreign leader wants to influence the American elections, but most are wise enough to refrain; trying to navigate the American political scene is difficult even for American politicians, much less outsiders. Tony Blair or John Howard could just as easily trigger a backlash, cause an international incident, weaken his own standing at home, etc., if either were to jump in and endorse a candidate.

Where I will draw an ethical line is when an American politician does something to improve his (re-)election chances at the expense of the common good. I'm thinking specifically of Nixon's under-the-table negotiations with North Vietnam during the 1968 elections, sabotaging the Paris peace talks in an attempt to hurt the Democrats' election chances; if there were evidence that Bush had done something like this, and was seeking to lower oil prices only to improve his own fortunes at the ballot box, I'd call that corruption. If he was simply pressuring the Saudis to lower oil prices, independently of the election calendar, I'd say that's within the scope of his duties — short-sighted and irresponsible in terms of energy policy, but not necessarily immoral.

Naturally I expect Team Dubya to tell me that Bush was manipulating oil prices to improve the economy regardless of what his actual motives were, because Team Dubya will lie about anything (see previous article) if it helps their re-election chances.

And, in any case, I suppose it must be reassuring for the Bushies to have at least one foreign leader on their side… seeing as how Kerry has locked up all the others.

- Posted by Scott Forbes at 5:44 am. comments.