Thursday, 05 February 2004

121 down, 2,040 to go: My response to a comment over at Daily Kos (that blog is like heroin for political junkies) about the current state of the Dean campaign:

Dean Supporters…
tell me how Dean can win. I'm not saying candidates who don't have a realistic chance of winning the nomination should be forced to leave, but what could the Dean campaign possibly be planning now that the MI/WA rebound looks less feasible and states like CA seem to be heading Kerry's way…

Dean can win by getting 2,161 delegates to vote for him at the convention, just like anyone else. Keep in mind that Kerry's "unstoppable momentum" is the same momentum that Dean had a month ago, and that most (if not all) of Kerry's upswing is the bandwagoning that automatically follows the front-runner. That status could be lost just as quickly as it came, and Kerry's campaign could return to the dead-fish impersonation it was doing until mid-January.

If Dean succeeds in firewalling Kerry in Wisconsin on the 17th, or builds up a lead in the March 2nd polls, then that front-runner momentum shifts back in his direction and leaves him with enough time to collect 2,161 delegates — or, in the political junkie's dream scenario, Dean and Kerry both go to the convention with 2,000 delegates and a sudden appreciation for what a wonderful VP Edwards would make. Could be exciting.

The question is whether Dean can get his momentum back in time. For people (like me) who've thought all along that Dean was the better candidate, he's still the better candidate — and, until the nomination is decided, you should be supporting the person you think is the best candidate regardless. Choosing a candidate based on "electability" means that you're letting other people make the choice for you: It's no longer your opinion, but what you think your neighbor will think. Our friends in the GOP will gladly take advantage of that behavior and lead us around by the nose if we're not careful.

So. If Kerry gets the same press treatment that Dean did as the front-runner, then Kerry should be radioactive and covered with toxic sludge by the 17th; Dean, meanwhile, will be saving up for a media blitz in Wisconsin and setting the stage for his comeback. With Clark a week away from bowing out, and Edwards failing to broaden his regional appeal, the story that's left for the media to tell is Kerry vs. a resurgent Dean — and every journalist out there knows how to write that one up. It was always going to come down to Dean and one other candidate; everyone still has that script in their back pocket, and it won't take much to kick off an avalanche of suddenly Dean-friendly media coverage.

Dean's other, enormous advantage is that his political oxygen is coming from a broad base of small donors. The rumors of Dean's bankruptcy were greatly exaggerated, and Dean's fundraising is much healthier than conventional wisdom says it should be at this point: He is going to be very, very tough to knock out of the race by any means other than delegate math.

I'm not saying I wouldn't prefer that Dean were in the lead right now, because then I could be telling people how Dean's momentum was unstoppable and everyone else might as well throw their support behind the winning team. But if you look at where the race is likely to be in a week or two then… well, I might still get to say that line.

- Posted by Scott Forbes at 10:48 am. comments.