Thursday, 22 January 2004

Jekyll and Hyde. The question now for Howard Dean and John Kerry is: Who'll be more successful at fixing his image problem in the next five days? If New Hampshire nominates John Kerry, do they get the savvy veteran candidate we saw in Iowa last week, or the dead man campaigning we saw the month before? If they vote for Howard Dean, do they get the centrist governor with the record of fiscal responsibility, or the scary angry man who frightens moderates away?

In some ways Dean has the bigger problem: The GOP spin machine has been ruthlessly attacking him since the day he jumped out in front—and his fellow Democrats, in their usual circular-firing-squad formation, have done their level best to hamstring their own front-runner. If Kerry had emerged as the lead candidate months ago, millions of dollars would have been spent by now to convince you that Kerry is a tempermental, unelectable, elitist, flip-flopping coward who's against war when he's in uniform and supports a war when he's not. If Kerry emerges as the nominee, millions of dollars will be spent on exactly that kind of mudslinging; the question is whether Kerry will rise to the challenge, as he did in Iowa… or flop around like a dying fish, like he did from July to December.

But Kerry wasn't the front-runner, and so Dean has all the baggage. Seven days a week, for three solid months, the drum has been beating: Dean is angry, the GOP whispered. Red-faced, murmured Fox News. Unfit for office, said the cynical reporters. Mentally unstable, thundered the right-wing columnist. A raving lunatic, screamed the call-in radio show! A dangerous threat to the very foundation of our society! My God, it's Howard Dean! He's come for the children!! RUN!!! RUUNNNNN!!!! AAAAGGGH!!!!! …and so it goes.

The good news for Dean is that it's fairly easy to poke a hole in the "Dean is angry" premise: All you have to do is relax, laugh, and enjoy yourself. Four years ago the GOP whisper campaign was "Gore's a liar," are Gore never found an effective counter—in spite of the fact that Gore had been a squeaky-clean Boy Scout throughout his political career. If Dean were as angry as the smear campaign says, there'd be a parade of Vermont politicians on the talk-show circuit telling us about the day Dean ransacked the Governor's mansion or had to be restrained from striking a fellow politician. But there isn't, because he wasn't. Dean's not really an angry guy… but he only has five days to demonstrate that, before the people of New Hampshire make their choice.

- Posted by Scott Forbes at 8:04 am. comments.