Tuesday, 20 January 2004
For the benefit of my Australian readers who are wondering what's happening with American politics right now (or, more to the point, are wondering what the heck I'm talking about these days), here's a brief summary of the American political scene.
First, the basics. America has two major political parties, and a Presidential election every four years. The Republicans are America's right-wing party, and their candidate is George W. Bush; his domestic policies have centered on cutting taxes (and, some would argue, on spending money like a drunken sailor), and I'll assume you're already familiar with his foreign policies.
The Democrats are the left-wing party, formerly led by Bill Clinton, and they're now in the process of deciding who will run against Bush in 2004. (America also has a Green Party, which got about 2% of the vote in 2000—which, if Al Gore had received those votes instead, would have given him a narrow victory over George W. Bush.)
There are eight candidates running for the Democratic nomination, which is decided by a series of caucuses and primaries in the 50 U.S. states. The first caucus is always in Iowa (it's a tradition), and the first primary in New Hampshire, so these states become very important for building early momentum and winning the later contests.
The eight candidates are from a variety of backgrounds, and each has his own set of strengths and weaknesses. (The lone female candidate, former U.S. Senator and New Zealand Ambassador Carol Moseley-Braun, dropped out of the race last week.) Keeping in mind that I've already declared for Dean, here is a brief and mostly unbiased rundown of each candidate:
Howard Dean
Dean served for ten years as the Governor of Vermont, a small state (bordering New Hampshire) in the upper northeast corner of the United States. He was a doctor before he entered politics, and in Vermont he balanced the budget and addressed health care needs. Dean opposed the Iraq war on the grounds that the Bush Administration misled the American people (and the world) in making its case for war, and that the administration failed to plan adequately for Iraq's post-war reconstruction.Strengths: Dean has created the most innovative political campaign in recent memory, a self-organizing juggernaut that uses the Internet to rally supporters from across the 50 states (and around the world). He has raised a volunteer army and collected an unprecedented $40 million in funding, relying on millions of small donations instead of the usual big checks from the wealthy, and his candor and "Washington outsider" status resonate with voters who are tired of politics-as-usual. Dean's appeal is strongest among young voters, the upper middle class, and those who opposed the Iraq war.
Weaknesses: With his anti-war position and his "I want my country back" slogan, Dean's opponents have portrayed him as being "too angry" for the mainstream, and suggested that Dean will be "unelectable" against Bush. Dean's off-the-cuff remarks have landed him in hot water on occasion; his comment immediately after Saddam Hussein's capture—that America was no safer as a result—left him open to a series of harsh political attacks. Dean has little foreign policy experience, and is perceived as unlikely to win votes in the American South. To date he has refused to unseal the records from his term of office as Vermont governor, which weakens his claim to improve over Bush in matters of openness and accountability.
Analysis: Dean needs a win in either Iowa or New Hampshire to prove he can expand his support beyond his base; if he wins either race, he is likely to be the nominee. Dean is probably the only candidate who can raise enough money to approach Bush's $170 million war chest; with a running mate who appeals to the South and brushes up his foreign policy credentials, Dean has a good chance to unseat Bush in November.
Wesley Clark
Clark was the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO during the war in Kosovo. A four-star general, he played a vital role in the Dayton peace accords and recently testified against Slobodan Milosevic before the International Criminal Court. Clark's position on the Iraq war was that Bush failed to enlist the support of NATO and the United Nations, both of whom are necessary to ensure our post-conflict success. Clark is from Arkansas, a Southern state that was also the home of President Bill Clinton.Strengths: Clark can go toe-to-toe with Bush as a strong military leader who can protect America from terrorists, and has the Balkans example to illustrate that he can also win the peace. Clark has assembled his own grassroots campaign on the Internet, which—although not as impressive as Dean's—has helped him gather momentum and donations. For Democrats who worry that voters prefer Republicans when it comes to matters of national security, Clark is the antidote that puts the party back in contention.
Weaknesses: Clark has never held public office at any level, and his campaign got off to a slow, late start: He conceded the Iowa race before it began, and focused instead on New Hampshire. He's perceived as a candidate who "looks good on paper," but who may not be the real deal; opponents have accused him of being a Republican in sheep's clothing, and his appeal to women voters has been highlighted as a problem. Clark's position on the war was initially unclear and he has since been accused of flip-flopping, although his supporters will vigorously defend him against this charge.
Analysis: After Dean, Clark is the most likely candidate to win the nomination—primarily on the strength of his military background and the tacit support from Bill and Hillary. He appeals to swing voters who preferred Clinton's domestic policies, but mistrust the Democrats' foreign policy instincts; if enough people fall into that category, and enough people trust Clark to be a genuine Democrat, then he could defeat Bush in the election.
John Kerry
A Vietnam veteran, Kerry rose to prominence when he testified before Congress in 1971, urging future Senate colleagues to end the war and bring his fellow soldiers home. Kerry has represented Massachusetts (which shares a border with New Hampshire) in the U.S. Senate since 1984, and as a Senator he supported deficit reduction, campaign finance reform, and public education improvements. Kerry voted in favor of the Iraq war, but has since expressed his displeasure with Bush's handling of the effort.Strengths: A last-minute surge in Iowa has propelled Kerry back into the limelight; at one point he was considered the likely front-runner. Kerry has a military background and political experience, which means he can challenge Bush's wartime credentials and appeal to dyed-in-the-wool Democrats.
Weaknesses: Until last week, Kerry's campaign was considered dead on arrival. His on-again, off-again support for the Iraq war has cost him dearly on both sides of that fence, and his polling numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire had been in free-fall. Kerry was forced to dip into his own personal fortune to keep his campaign alive; he faces questions about whether he has the funding and support to go the distance. Kerry's wife, Theresa Heinz Kerry (heir to the Heinz ketchup fortune), is a loose cannon who could easily damage his chances.
Analysis: If Kerry can pull off victories in both Iowa and New Hampshire, his campaign will come off life support and rally the "anybody but Dean" vote. Kerry needs for Gephardt, Lieberman and Clark to drop out of the race quickly, because he doesn't have the stamina or the funding to outlast them.
Dick Gephardt
Gephardt is a 26-year veteran of the House of Representatives, representing the state of Missouri (which borders Iowa). As the Democratic Party's leader in the House, Gephardt steered Clinton's budget proposals through Congress, helped enact campaign finance reform laws, and has been a consistent supporter of American farmers and labor unions. Gephardt voted in favor of the Iraq war, but has since criticized Bush's handling of the reconstruction.Strengths: Gephardt won the Iowa caucus in 1988, when he last ran for President, and has a veteran campaign organization there. His protectionist stance and universal health care plan appeals to voters who feel threatened by economic uncertainty.
Weaknesses: Gephardt is a loyal, hard-working, and widely admired party leader, but he lacks the crucial ability to spark passion—his supporters admire him, but they don't put their lives on hold and campaign for him. He is at least partially to blame for the Democrats' poor showing in the 2002 mid-term elections.
Analysis: Gephardt will withdraw after the New Hampshire primary.
John Edwards
A trial lawyer serving his first term in the Senate, Edwards represents the East Coast state of North Carolina. Edwards has run an issues-oriented campaign with comprehensive proposals on taxation, health care and education reform.Strengths: Edwards is a dynamite public speaker, and he's running a campaign with an optimistic message. His campaign has avoided personal attacks, and he is slowly rising above the fray as the other candidates drag themselves into the mud. Everyone expects him to be back in 2008 or 2012.
Weaknesses: His youth and inexperience make him a fresh face in the primaries, but would likely count against him in a general election. Bush operatives would have a field day with his trial-lawyer background. He has very little foreign policy experience, and the first candidate to turn his guns on Edwards will pop him like a balloon.
Analysis: Look for Edwards to become a rising star in the Democratic Party, but not to win this year's nomination.
Joe Lieberman
Lieberman was Al Gore's running mate in the 2000 election, and is a third-term Senator from Connecticut (near New Hampshire). He was among the first Democrats to condemn Bill Clinton's behavior during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, and championed the creation of the Department of Homeland Security. He supported and still supports the Iraq war.Strengths: He appeals to "liberal hawk" voters who strongly supported the war but are less enamored with Bush's domestic policies.
Weaknesses: Lieberman's support for the war is a tough sell to Democrats who want a lot of daylight between their standard-bearer and George Bush. Lieberman skipped Iowa to focus on New Hampshire, where he'll be overshadowed by Clark and the Iowa winners; without a New Hampshire victory to breathe life into his campaign, and without Gore's support in 2004, Lieberman has little hope of winning the nomination.
Analysis: Lieberman will withdraw after the New Hampshire primary.
Dennis Kucinich
A Congressman from Ohio since 1994, Kucinich is best known for his campaign promise to remove American troops from Iraq within 90 days of taking office.Strengths: By refusing to bolt for the Green Party, Kucinich encourages the 2.74% of Americans who voted for Ralph Nader to stick with the Democrats in '04.
Weaknesses: While a significant number of Americans may feel that Bush misled them in the buildup to the Iraq war, the overwhelming majority realize that it would be the height of folly to withdraw our troops now. Bush would easily defeat Kucinich in a national election.
Analysis: Kucinich will use his might-defect-to-the-Greens card as leverage to extract a few promises, but then fall faithfully in line behind the party's nominee.
Al Sharpton
An African-American minister from New York, Sharpton is best known to national audiences for a 1987 incident involving an African-American teenager named Tawana Bradley, who falsely accused a group of white men of rape.Strengths: He appeals to African-American voters, particularly in New York.
Weaknesses: He is not taken seriously as a candidate, being perceived more as a kingmaker-wannabe than an actual contender for the nomination. Sharpton has so many skeletons in his closet that it's a wonder he can fit any clothes in there.
Analysis: He will extract what promises he can from the party's eventual nominee, and then throw his support behind that person.
The Iowa caucus will begin about 12 hours from now, and we should know the results by mid-afternoon, local time; the polls are showing a dead heat between Kerry, Dean, Edwards and Gephardt, but Dean and Gephardt have much stronger teams on the ground, which is important in a caucus. (A caucus is a series of "town meeting"-style events across a state, each of which selects a candidate according to a set of rules that probably made more sense back in 1880 when they started doing this. A primary is just like a regular election, except that it chooses the nominee. Also, caucuses allow preferential voting under some conditions, so it may be important who your second choice is; primaries and general elections in the USA do not use preferential voting.)
Hope this helps illuminate something, other than the fact that I have too much free time. Stay tuned for a post-Iowa analysis of who's likely to win the nomination.
- Posted by Scott Forbes at 8:00 am. comments.
