Friday, 12 December 2003

War on Everybody. Here's a prediction: Within the next two weeks, the European Union will begin describing the Bush Administration's decision to exclude Canada, Germany, France, Russia, China et al. from bidding on Iraqi reconstruction contracts as "protectionism." Within 30 days, they will seek a ruling from the WTO against the "reasons of national security" premise (which is the only rationale that keeps this policy from violating our free trade agreements), and within 180 days they'll invoke the "targeted sanctions" originally designed by the EU as a response to Bush's steel tariffs. (The sanctions involve goods ranging from Florida oranges to Harley-Davidson motorcycles, but the real target is Dubya's re-election chances: The targeted industries are all in swing states that narrowly voted Republican in 2000.)

I think Europe is tired of being slapped in the face. If Bush or anyone in his Administration thinks this policy makes our should-be allies more likely to send troops, then they're utterly tone deaf; resistance to ham-fisted U.S. policies just hardened in every world capital on the globe. If a Schröder or a Chirac announced today that they'd meekly send troops anywhere in the world the next time the U.S. asked, that leader would be thrown out of office faster than you could say "national pride." This policy will produce zero additional support for our Iraq efforts, and by all accounts will impede our efforts to reduce Iraq's debt and secure foreign aid.

Bush already has a two-front war in progress, against the Al Qaeda cult on one hand and the Baathist mafia on the other. Opening a third front against our potential allies, as a penalty for not being eager enough to jump on our bandwagon, is so utterly counterproductive and distracting from the real war that it raises serious questions about whether Bush is focused on the right enemy. Anti-American propaganda sources are having an absolute field day with this—they couldn't write a better script to portray the U.S. as a domineering imperialist—and the fact that the White House green-lighted this policy says that the Bush Administration didn't learn anything from its earlier failures to get these allies on board.

I don't see Bush winning re-election at this rate.

- Posted by Scott Forbes at 1:57 am. comments.